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Analysis

Bitcoin short spree could push price to $7,300, followed by potential surge

Akash Girimath

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Source: Unsplash

Bitcoin’s journey over the last month has been tortuous, to say the very least. The world’s largest cryptocurrency’s price has tumbled from $10,500 to south of $7,500, and its market cap has shed $50 billion over this period. As it stands, at press time, Bitcoin’s market cap stood at $140 billion.

With consecutive long squeezes, shorts have mutilated all hope in the market, and by the looks of it, there is still one last stretch remaining. A dip to $7,522, hopefully, will exhaust all the short sellers and provide respite for the longs to take over, at least for a short time.

1 Hour chart

Source: BTC/USD on TradingView

As the price evolves over the one-hour time frame, it is taking the shape of a falling wedge pattern, similar to the one seen in late-March. Both the patterns have a bearish prior trend, followed by the falling wedge pattern and a bullish breakout. Although early, the price seems like it will stick to this pattern

Hence, the next 24 to 72 hours for Bitcoin seem to be set. There will be a bounce to $7,806, followed after a revisit to $7,522 and even lower, $7,296. Further, there will be a breakout to $8,163 [in an optimistic scenario], else, the price will surge to $7,987, a 6% climb from $7,522 and a 9% rise from $7,296.

At press time, the RSI is also forming a lower high, indicating no divergence from the price. As BTC reaches $7,296, RSI will reach an oversold zone; this will be followed by a coup, with the bulls coming out on top. There is also a possibility where the price will dip lower than $7,296, considering the extremely bearish pressure.

Bitcoin Futures and Options

Bitcoin Futures volume on both Bakkt and CME are facing depreciation yet again, with daily volume hitting $167 million on 11 March on CME, and $16.2 million on Bakkt.

Bitcoin Open Interest

Source: Skew

Even with decreasing volumes, the total Open Interest [OI] has hit $820 million. With the way markets are reacting, this might be facing a roadblock.

Bitcoin Options‘ OI is also nearing $800 million. However, the recent downtrend has contributed to the implied volatility spiking to 69%. The last time ATM volatility was this high was in November 2019, ie., 72%.

Conclusion

With too much uncertainty in the markets, the price of Bitcoin seems bearish. However, a dip to $7,400 and beyond seems more than likely. The same cannot be said about a surge for Bitcoin, until it finds support.

Akash is a full-time cryptocurrency writer and an analyst at AMBCrypto. He is an engineering graduate with an avid interest in finance and economics. Attracted to the chaos of trading, Akash has invested in BTC, ETH and XRP for educational purposes.