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Bitcoin short-term Price Analysis: 15 November

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Disclaimer: The findings of the following article are the sole opinion of the writer and should not be taken as investment advice

16.78% and 48.22% – That’s how much Bitcoin has surged since 1 November and 1 October, respectively. Suffice to say, Bitcoin has been on a roll in the last quarter [since September – 34%].

So, is it all sunshine and daisies and rainbows and butter mellows for Bitcoin?

Of course not. As described in a previous article, things do look grim for Bitcoin, at least in the short-term. This article will take a look at the short-term price movement of Bitcoin and what to expect from a purely technical analysis perspective.

Bitcoin 4-hour chart

Source: BTCUSD on TradingView

A short position would be the best way to go about trading Bitcoin. The reasons are simple, Bitcoin bulls are exhausted from their 3-month rally and this isn’t a full-blown bull run yet, hence, while bulls rest, the market’s bears will take control.

We can expect a 3% to 6% drop soon on the charts.

Rationale

The rationale from a TA perspective is the formation of a bearish pattern – rising wedge. The bearish breakout will push Bitcoin to its nearest support level(s). Moreover, there is a double bearish divergence between the price and the volume and the price and the RSI.

For both these indicators, the price had formed a higher high, and neither the volume nor the bullish momentum justified it. Hence, we will need to be ready for a drop soon.

In fact, the drop/breakout had already happened, with the price retesting the bottom of the wedge.

Source: BTCUSD on TradingView

The final rationale is the 0.786-Fibonacci level that the price was at. There is a 50-50 chance that the price will face a rejection here. In such a case, it will only strengthen the already bearish narrative explained here. However, there is a chance the price could surge above this level as it did with the 0.618-Fibonacci level.

Conclusion

Although the proof is concrete that a short position is the best way to go, there is still a chance that Bitcoin might head higher since it is in a pre-bull run stage. So, it is better to keep a tight stop-loss in case one decides to short this.

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Akash is a full-time cryptocurrency writer and an analyst at AMBCrypto. He is an engineering graduate with an avid interest in finance and economics. Attracted to the chaos of trading, Akash has invested in BTC, ETH and XRP for educational purposes.
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