For an asset notorious for its volatility, bitcoin has had a quiet a low volatile period. The 30-day estimate showed volatility of 2.41%, a level seen before the Black Thursday drop.
Bitcoin: 1 Hour Chart
BTCUSD TradingView
From the above chart, it is clear that the price has broken out of the descending triangle pattern. As the price surges to its theoretical target [which is at $9,592], it will face multiple resistances. At press time, immediate resistance at $9,389 was already hindering upside movement, and to make matters worse, 50-DMA [yellow] is also resisting this movement.
The significance of 50 DMA can be seen on a daily time frame; the recent [daily] close below 50 DMA was last seen almost 2 months ago, when the price was consolidating in the $6,400 range. Hence, breaching above this level would, without a doubt, be bullish for the price. If the price, somehow, managed to breach above this level, it would face resistance at $9,488 and $9.592. In terms of percentage, the final target would be a 2.73% surge from the current level.
However, a failure to capture the confluence of resistance [50 DMA and $9,389] would yield in a downtrend. This downtrend [red arrow] could push the price to $9,222 [a potential pullback target].
Conclusion
While there is a possibility of the price heading lower on a shorter time frame [considering the pattern formed in the daily chart], the likely scenario is that the price will surge up to target 2 [$9,488] and then head lower to the pullback target.
Looking at RSI, it is clear that there is still space for the buyers to push toward the overbought zone. As RSI hits the overbought zone, the price will hit the “Target 2” and then proceed to dump as RSI trudges towards the neutral zone [at 50].
The long term set up of the price is bearish and CME COT report shows more short positions are being racked up by “leveraged funds”, while retails’ [aka non-reportables] long position reduces.
