Has the Bitcoin bull run started yet?

Bitcoin has hit a new ATH of 19,865 as of November 30, 2020, however, it hasn’t hit $20,000 yet. This calls for a celebration as the highs set in 2017 were finally reached after 1080 days.

So, what to expect next?

Long term, bitcoin is bullish without a shadow of a doubt. However, the short term is what matters the most. Let’s take a look at two reasons why it might not be safe for you to long your BTC bag yet.

Bitcoin whale inflow to exchanges:

Source: CryptoQuant

This metric shows that inflows by whales into exchanges haven’t stopped. Whales depositing BTCs back to exchanges indicates that they are planning to take profits. Taking profit means they have to sell and this would mean for the price to drop, ergo bearish.

Other similar stats that show profit-taking time has saturated include – supply in profit, a metric similar to SOPR. This metric shows that 100% of the supply is in profit, which obvious considering the new ATH was broken yesterday.

Bitcoin whale outflow

Source: Whalemap

This metric shows that the whales aren’t withdrawing their BTC holdings from exchanges, which is also short term bearish.

So, should I long or short?

Neither. The point where bitcoin is right now is the best place to take profits. Buying here would be a risky bet.

Whales withdraw bitcoins from exchanges when they plan on holding it for a long time. For example, holdings since 2018 bear market to June 2019. If the whales feel like they can accumulate more, they can easily buy low and sell high, to only accumulate more during the pullback.

Moreover, the hourly map of unspent bitcoin shows massive accumulation since early November. So, it is logical to take profits at new ATHs, which could go up to $20,700 and even $22,000. The pullback, however, could range from $16,100 to $15,800.