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Bitcoin short-term price analysis: 26 July

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Bitcoin short-term price analysis: 26 July

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Bitcoin has recently concluded one of its best trading weeks of the past three months with a move over $10,000. Since the beginning of the week, the premier cryptocurrency has seen a 6.5 percent price increase which has taken it past $9,600 and then past the five-figure mark after a month of trading in a tight channel. This move has unsurprisingly buoyed the altcoin market with several top-cryptos seeing double-digit price increases on the back of isolated momentum swings and Bitcoin’s rally.

Looking at the short-term 1-hour price chart for Bitcoin, there was a clear and strong upward channel until the push over $10,000 left it behind, which took the crypto’s price from the support of $9,100 on 20 July to as high as $10,150, before a minor decline placing the price at a press time value of $10,010. During the formation of the now-broken upward channel, the cryptocurrency saw strict higher-highs and higher lows, building a stronger foundation to reach resistance break, and forming key support levels in case of a dump.

The first low can be marked at $9,150 where the lower bound of the channel begins and the successive higher-lows can be placed at $9,280, $9,360, $9,450, and $9,600 respectively. Similar to the lows, higher highs were interspersed between the lows at $9,400, the first pump on 21 July, $9,530, breaking out of the resistance at $9,500, $9,610, $9,750 and at 1000 UTC on 26 July, the price marked its highest high since it hit $9,600 on June 10, by surging past $10,000 leaving the upward channel in its wake.

Source: BTCUSD via Trading View

Regardless of this $9,500+ price holding, the breakout was important for the Bitcoin market. Prior to the first pump on 21 July, Bitcoin’s 30-day realized volatility was trending at 23 percent, which was its lowest point since March 2019 when the price was locked in the $4,000 – $4,500 range for over two months before a breakout, which eventually took it to $13,800 by the end of Q2 2019. Since 2013, Bitcoin’s 30-day realized volatility has been lower than 29 percent only 10 percent of the time. Hence, even if this push does not hold the cryptocurrency’s price over $10,000, it is still significant in pulling Bitcoin out of a low-volatility rut and back in contention with other macroeconomic assets.

The MACD indicator for Bitcoin which has been going through a roller-coaster ride since this pump began has managed to stay above 0, and now with the move past $10,000 has surged above. On two occasions – on July 21 and July 24, when the market saw decreasing momentum, MACD and Signal line moved down towards the plane, but managed to say above and saw a big-move up on 25 July, as Bitcoin jumped from $9,550 to $9,700. Now, with the price push, the MACD has distanced itself from the Signal line on the 1-hour chart.

As mentioned earlier, volatility is key for the Bitcoin market regardless of the breakout above $10,000. That being said, the breakage of such a strong upward channel shows that either this move was not organic, or it was and this final push over $10,000 was just the straw that broke the camel’s back. With the move above $10,000, the 24-hour BTC global trade volume is over $20 billion, which has been building up from a low of $12 billion a week ago and will no doubt increase as the price play in and out with the $10,000 mark. If a move down does manifest, the channel should hold strong and the aforementioned higher lows will act as strong support levels, testing the price with each dump, if at all.


Aakash is a full-time cryptocurrency journalist at AMBCrypto covering primarily the US market. A graduate in Finance and Economics, his writing is centered around regulation and institutional investment within the cryptocurrency space. He is also an aspiring triathlete.
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