Bitcoin 2020 options places 4% probability on breaking ATH before maturity
The crypto-winter finally came to a close after the world’s largest virtual asset surged substantially from April to May. The price peaked at $13,800 on June 26 before corrections took over. Bitcoin continued to consolidate above the $10,000 range, before the market sentiment changed after a few significant collapses in the coin’s price.
At press time, Skew Markets was reporting that Deribit exchange has opened options trading for Bitcoin and ETH. It was claimed that the same would reach maturity on June 20, 2020, with a probability of 4 percent being placed on Bitcoin crossing its all-time high, post its May 2020 halving.
In the first half of 2019, the optimism surrounding Bitcoin was significantly positive. Bitcoin managed to breached major resistances over a span of 60 days and finally, peaked at over $13,000.
The Futures market was also relatively positive with high trade volumes as CME and Grayscale registered over $8 billion and $2 billion monthly trade volume in July, respectively.
Further, popular Analyst PlanB stated that Bitcoin’s market cap valuation post-May 2020 halving may reach an estimated $1 trillion, which suggested that Bitcoin’s valuation may reach around $55,000. Bitcoin’s Stock-to-flow ratio model which the analyst used is based on the scarcity index and historically, Bitcoin has adhered to it for the past few years.
However, the 2nd half of 2019 has been extremely disappointing for Bitcoin and the collective virtual asset industry.
August marked a major consolidation period for Bitcoin and September witnessed the first downfall below $10,000. The recent depreciation in the coin’s price saw Bitcoin drop below $7,500 and many started speculating that Bitcoin may be heading towards another slump before the end of the year.
The recent probability placed on Deribit’s 2020 option trade contradicts the majority of the predictions placed early in the year, but another bullish price swing may see Bitcoin improve its chances to close in on its all-time high.