The ‘Death Cross’ on Ethereum – Why analysts are warning of a short-term crash

Ethereum has been on the edge, especially after printing a ‘Death Cross’ in late November after analysts warned of a potential short-term crash. 

The so-called ‘Death Cross’ happens when the 50-day Moving Average (MA) crosses below the long-term 200-day (MA). It underscores weakened Ethereum price momentum and is typically associated with additional losses in the near term. 

Source: ETH/USDT, TradingView

For ETH, the recent Death Cross warnings were followed by a 10%-45% decline in 2024 and 2025. The massive loss of 45% happened after the warning in Q1 2025 and the Trump tariff wars.

However, the November trigger had been relatively muted, with only a 5% dip. Assuming it were to hit 30%, that would imply a dip to $2k. Still, such a move would be viewed as a buying opportunity, rather than a warning of extra downside risk. 

ETH longs surge to 70%

The ETF sell-off has been a major source of pressure on ETH since October. However, the pressure has eased considerably since late November, indicating a potential relief if demand turns neutral or positive. 

Source: Glassnode

And, the market positioning has been dominated by longs too. 

After a reset to 60% during the post-October 10 crash, longs had scaled positions above 70% by the time of writing. This suggested that some players have been betting on ETH’s price recovery. 

Source: CryptoQuant

Is it time to buy ETH?

Another on-chain dataset that hinted at recovery potential was the MVRV Z-Score valuation metric. In the past, ETH reached local tops when the metric reached 1.6-2.0 and bottomed out when the metric slipped to 0.2 or below. 

At the time of writing, the metric’s reading was at 0.3 after tagging 0.2, which was in the bottom zone. 

Source: Glassnode

In other words, ETH’s press time value of $2.9k was undervalued and a buy opportunity.

In fact, analyst Donald Dean projected that the altcoin could rally to $ 5,700 if the ETH/BTC ratio drops by 50% in the mid-term, citing a bullish head-and-shoulders price pattern. 

Source: Donald Dean/X

Final Thoughts

• ETH has posted limited losses despite triggering a “Death Cross” in late November.
• On the contrary, longs have increased, and a key metric showed ETH was undervalued at press time levels.