Polymarket reveals change in sentiment around ETH 2.0 Genesis event

One of the most hotly debated topics in crypto of late has been the question of whether the Ethereum 2.0 Genesis event will take place successfully on 1 December.

The target for Ethereum 2.0’s on-time launch is set at 524,288 ETH. As of last week, only 20% of the target had been achieved. However, at the time of writing, 54.67% of the target had been met, with over 287K ETH sent to the ETH 2.0 deposit contract.

The fact that over half of the target has been met so quickly is astonishing to many, especially since many were skeptical about the target being reached by the deadline. However, that sentiment is changing now, as seen by the shift in odds on Polymarket.

Source: Polymarket

Only a few days ago, the charts on Polymarket pointed to a 72% chance that the Deposit contract will not be filled in time. At the time of writing, however, the charts were 61% skewed in favor of the Genesis event happening on time, with the Deposit contract well filled.

In fact, the said crossover happened on 21 November, around the time when over 87,000 ETH were sent to the deposit contract by 2733 unique addresses.

Source: Dune Analytics

According to data from Dune Analytics, this was the largest amount sent to the deposit contract in a single day since its launch.

While many are optimistic about the premise of ETH 2.0 and its decentralized nature, the deposits over the past few days alone are indicative of the number of people holding ETH in such volumes across the ecosystem.

It is indeed an expensive time for the average retail investor as ETH, at the time of writing, was up by over 9% in 24 hours, with the same trading at $591 on the price charts.

Source: Dune Analytics

Finally, data that examined the average transaction count v. deposit value also seemed to suggest that at present, whales are responsible for a majority of the deposits in the ETH 2.0 deposit contract.