Ethereum: How close is ETH to $4K? – THESE datasets hold the clue

Key takeaways

Fresh capital is flowing into Ethereum, with first-time buyer supply up 16% since July. Over 90% of ETH holders are now in profit, and on-chain resistance looks light until $4,000. While ETH may see a short-term cooldown, technicals suggest the broader uptrend remains intact.

Ethereum [ETH] is back in the spotlight, and this time, it’s fresh hands fueling the momentum.

First-time holder supply has jumped 16% since July, indicating renewed confidence among new investors.

With over 90% of ETH holders now sitting on unrealized gains and limited on-chain resistance until the $4,000 mark, the setup is looking increasingly bullish.

Could Ethereum be gearing up for an extended breakout?

First-time buyers drive new wave of Ethereum accumulation

After months of subdued activity, Ethereum is witnessing a notable shift in investor behavior.

According to Glassnode data, the supply held by first-time buyers has surged by 16% since early July; its first meaningful rise in months.

Source: Glassnode

As the chart illustrates, this uptick coincides with ETH’s price pushing above $3,000, suggesting that fresh capital is re-entering the market amid renewed optimism.

More traders pocket profits, resistance ahead

With over 90% of Ethereum addresses now in profit – its highest profitability rate since December 2024 – the path ahead looks increasingly clear.

Source: IntoTheBlock

According to IntoTheBlock data, very few addresses purchased ETH above current levels, indicating limited on-chain resistance on the way up.

The first significant cluster of addresses still holding at a loss lies just below the $4,000 mark, with around 2.39 million wallets in that range.

Until then, upside pressure may face little opposition, making way for a potential breakout as bullish sentiment continues to strengthen among both seasoned and new investors.

Overbought but still strong

Ethereum’s sharp rally pushed the RSI into overbought territory at 78, at press time, suggesting a potential short-term cooldown.

The slight pullback from the $3,800 zone is a healthy breather after nine consecutive green candles.

Despite the dip, the uptrend remains structurally intact; especially with OBV continuing its steady rise, showing sustained buying interest.

If ETH holds above $3,500, bullish momentum could resume quickly. However, a deeper pullback toward $3,400-$3,200 can’t be ruled out before another leg up.