Could Bitcoin’s 2028 halving propel BTC to $500K? Assessing…

Key Takeaways

When is the next Bitcoin halving?

The next halving event is projected to occur on the 17th of April, 2028, taking the Bitcoin block mining rewards down to 1.5625 BTC.

What other factors influence Bitcoin cycles?

The global M2 money supply is one of the key factors that drives BTC cycles alongside the halving event.

The previous Bitcoin [BTC] halving occurred on the 20th of April 2024. It meant that the Bitcoin block reward was halved from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. Each halving event occurs after 210,000 blocks mined.

With constant difficulty adjustments to keep the target pace of one BTC block mined every 10 minutes, the next block reward halving should occur in April 2028.

The halving rewards and the finite supply ensure Bitcoin scarcity. However, each BTC cycle doesn’t depend solely on the halving cycle.

As analyst Willy Woo pointed out, the global M2 cycle had been superimposed on the halving cycle for the past two cycles.

He explained,

“The 2 cycles: the halvening and global M2 liquidity. Central banks inject M2 debasement in 4-year cycles. Both superimpose.”

Source: Bitcoin Counter Flow

Each Bitcoin bull run has coincided with an expansion in the global M2 money supply. The theory is that, as the money supply grows, the value of fiat drops. This excess liquidity creates a risk-averse environment.

So, as an inflation hedge, capital flows to alternative assets such as gold and Bitcoin. The money supply is considered a leading indicator of Bitcoin- an M2 expansion is followed by BTC price gains after a time lag.

The recent M2 growth meant that 67% of the surveyed institutional investors had a bullish outlook for the next 3-6 months, wrote David Duong, head of research at Coinbase Institutional.

Looking beyond this Bitcoin cycle

It is not just the halving cycle that drives a Bitcoin cycle. The macroeconomic outlook and money supply were critical factors that would have an impact on the next cycle.

Source: Bitbo

The Stock to Flow formula is based on the scarcity of BTC, as the halving dramatically reduces the new supply mined each year. The Stock to Income modifies the formula, introducing the miners’ transaction fees to more accurately forecast prices.

Both models project Bitcoin prices above $500K following the next halving in 2028. The power law and Rainbow Halving Price Regression (HPR) forecasts were not as bullish.

Nevertheless, they still indicate a steady upward trend in BTC prices over the coming years.

In a report published in August 2025, Bitwise contended that the fiat devaluation and rising U.S. debt obligations can fuel Bitcoin’s growth to $1.3 million by 2035. Speaking to CNBC, Fundstrat’s Tom Lee called for Bitcoin, the “digital gold”, to be worth over $1 million.

Apart from the global money supply, digital asset treasuries and ETFs worldwide could see greater amounts of capital flowing to crypto.