After Brazil’s Solana ETF approval, will U.S. follow suit? Experts say…

• An analyst claimed that the U.S. SOL ETF approval could happen before end-2024. 
• However, ETF analysts previously projected an approval in early 2025 if Trump wins. 

According to Dave Manthan, a former Ripple executive and co-founder of digital custody firm Palisade, Brazil’s first-mover stance on Solana [SOL] ETFs could tip the U.S. to pivot and follow suit. 

In a recent interview, the executive claimed the U.S. could approve the products before end-year. 

“Considering the current election season and the prevailing sentiment, it is likely that we will see the approval of Solana ETFs before the end of this year.”

Manthan added that approval before the election could boost market sentiment, expressing,

“The key question is whether this will happen before or after the elections. With the Republicans currently seen as pro-crypto, approval before the election could significantly influence market sentiment.”

Mixed outlook for U.S. spot SOL ETFs

Other industry analysts’ recent comments differed considerably from Manthan’s view.

VanEck’s Head of Research, Mathew Sigel, recently warned that a U.S. spot SOL ETF approval would only be possible with a “soft fork,” and if the White House controlled the keys. 

Simply put, Sigel meant that U.S. spot SOL ETF would likely happen under a new administration or regulation. 

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas also expressed a similar sentiment in June and projected a deadline of March 2025. 

“Looks like Solana ETFs are going to have a final deadline of mid-March 2025. But between now and then, the most important date is in November. If Biden wins, these likely DOA. If Trump wins, anything poss.” 

For context, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has not clarified whether SOL is a security.

Even the recent move to amend the Binance lawsuit and retract SOL’s labelling as a security has not established the token’s regulatory clarity. Notably, the agency made similar claims against Coinbase with no retractions. 

Additionally, according to Polymarket, Kamala Harris had a 10% lead over Donald Trump at the time of writing, further complicating an obvious win for the former president and pro-crypto candidate. 

So, if a Trump win was the key to SOL ETF approval, it didn’t look great for the asset, at least based on Polymarket data at the time of writing. 

Meanwhile, the number of Polymarket users betting on SOL ETF approval before the end of the year was below 10%. 

Source: Polymarket

On the spot markets, however, the asset traded at $146, still above its 2024 demand level of $130.